City Hall released a new estimate this week that the unsheltered population fell about 32 percent in 18 months, from 5,477 people in February 2025 to 3,702 in August 2026. Mayor Matt Mahan tied the change to encampment cleanups, no-re-encampment zones, and a fast buildout of interim rooms: motels, tiny homes, and other emergency beds. ABC7 heard from some residents near Arena Green and the SAP Center who said they now see fewer people living outdoors, even as they added that the crisis has not left the city.
The numbers come from UrbanLogiq, a third-party model that folds in 15 data streams rather than waiting for the federal Point-in-Time count every two years. Those streams include outreach logs, police and fire calls, transportation counts of lived-in vehicles, and Homeless Management Information System records. Officials say the same model counted about 1,500 more unsheltered people than the January 2025 PIT figure of 3,959, which is why they treat the older snapshot as an undercount. The plan is to refresh the estimate every quarter so programs can shift instead of guessing for two years at a stretch.
Housing staff also pointed to capacity that did not exist a short while ago. Reports this week put newly created interim units around 1,000, while a September 15 council briefing described a wider portfolio of roughly 1,820 units and more than 2,200 beds across 22 sites. Lived-in vehicles tracked by the city fell from 960 in fall 2024 to 385 by spring 2026. Resident surveys moved in the same direction: the share of people who named homelessness as the single biggest thing San Jose should change dropped from a peak of 40 percent to 20 percent.
Skeptics asked whether the street feels that different. Advocate Shaunn Cartwright told ABC7 the 32 percent cut does not match what she sees day to day and noted that unhoused deaths last year hit 160, with 2026 on a similar pace. The Mercury News reported that Santa Clara County has not independently reviewed the UrbanLogiq model. The next official PIT count is not due until early 2027, so federal funders may still lean on the older method. City leaders themselves said the people still outside are often the hardest to reach, with addiction and mental health needs that interim beds alone will not settle.
A smaller outdoor population would matter for parks, storefronts, and the everyday walk through Downtown San Jose. It would also matter for the thousands who moved inside if those rooms stay funded and lead somewhere more permanent. The next quarterly run of the model will show whether the line keeps falling or levels off.
Source: ABC News








































